| As you can see, the fair values calculated using different model and
assumptions are dramatically different from each other. Justifying the proper model and
assumptions can be very complicated. Per FAS 123 R,
"regardless of the valuation technique or model selected, an entity shall develop reasonable
and supportable estimates for each assumption used in the model, including the
employee share option or similar instruments expected term, taking into account both
the contractual term of the option and the effects of employees expected exercise
and post-vesting employment termination behavior". Although the Exposure Draft characterized lattice models as
preferable", neither FAS 123 R nor the Exposure Draft prescribes the use of a specific
option-pricing model. However, both documents require that an option-pricing model take
into account the first 6 inputs listed in the above table, at a minimum. The directional
impact of changes in each of these assumptions is described in the following table:
| Increase to this input |
Fair value will be |
| Both Binomial Model and Black-Scholes Model |
1. Current stock price |
Higher |
| 2. Exercise price |
Lower |
| 3. Expected volatility |
Higher |
| 4. Expected dividends |
Lower |
| 5. Risk-free interest rate) |
Higher |
| 6. Expected term of the option |
Higher |
| Binomial Model only |
7. Suboptimal factor |
Higher |
| 8. Post-vesting termination rate |
Lower |
| 9. Number of time steps |
Variable |
FAS 123 R - Measurement Objectives of Fair Value
The chosen valuation model must meet all three of the requirements stated in Statement
123R, paragraph A8, in order to meet the fair value measurement objective:
- the model is applied in a manner consistent with the fair value measurement objective
and other requirements of Statement 123R,
- the models is based on established principles of financial economic theory and generally
applied in that field, and
- the model reflects all substantive characteristics of the instrument.
General Practices
Service Based Options: For a share option in which the exercisability is simply based
on passage of service time, either Black-Scholes or Binomial model meets the above three
measurement objective.
Performance Based Options: For a share option in which the exercisability is
conditional, e.g. on a specified increase in the price of the underlying shares, the
Black-Scholes model would generally not be an appropriate valuation model because, while
it meets both the first and second criteria, it is not designed to take into account that
type of market condition.
SAB 107 - SEC's Position
SEC understands that estimates of fair value of employee share options, while derived
from expected value calculations, cannot predict actual future events. If a valuation
technique or model is used to estimate fair value, entities may concern about its
estimates of fair value to be materially misleading because the estimates of fair value do
not correspond to the value ultimately realized by the employees who received the share
options. Per SAB 107, it clearly states taht "as
long as the share options were originally so measured, changes in an employee share
options value, no matter how significant, subsequent to its grant date do not call
into question the reasonableness of the grant date fair value estimate."
SEC would not object to a companys choice of a technique or model as long
as the technique or model meets the fair value measurement objective. A change in the
valuation technique or model used to meet the fair value measurement objective would not
be considered a change in accounting principle. As such, a company would not be required
to file a preferability letter from its independent accountants as described in Rule
10-01(b)(6) of Regulation S-X when it changes valuation
techniques or models. However, the staff would not expect that a company would frequently
switch between valuation techniques or models, particularly in circumstances where there
was no significant variation in the form of share-based payments being valued. Disclosure
in the footnotes of the basis for any change in technique or model would be appropriate.
Option123 provides three models for valuation. Entities may
use one or all three models that meet the fair value measurement objective before making
their selection as to the appropriate technique or model.
FASB's Exposure Draft Does Indicate Lattice
Models are Superior to Closed-Form Models.
The Exposure Draft defines a lattice model as a model
that produces an estimated fair value based on the assumed changes in prices of a
financial instrument over successive periods of time. The binomial model is an example of
a lattice model. In each time period, the model assumes that at least two price movements
are possible. The lattice represents the evolution of the value of either a financial
instrument or a market variable for the purpose of valuing a financial instrument.
Historically, most companies have used the Black-Scholes model to value employee
stock options. However, as a result of the FASBs research and discussions with
members of the FASBs Option Valuation Group, it concluded that the use of the
Black-Scholes model or other closed-form option-pricing models that require static
assumptions usually are not the best methods to estimate the fair value of a typical
employee stock option. While closed-form option-pricing models may be modified to address
some of the characteristics of employee stock options (e.g., specifying an expected term
for the option rather than the contractual term to address observed early exercise
behavior of option holders), such modifications typically require simplifying assumptions
that the FASB believes may result in measurement error. Because of the limitations of Black-Scholes model, the Exposure Draft indicates that the use of a more complex
lattice model (e.g., a binomial model) that takes into account employee exercise patterns
based on the dynamics of a companys stock price and other salient variables and
provides for other dynamic input assumptions will result in a better estimate of fair
value.
The concepts that under lattice models and the Black-Scholes model are the same, but
the key difference between a lattice model and a closed-form model is the flexibility of
the former. For example, a lattice model can explicitly use dynamic assumptions regarding
the term structure of volatility, dividend yields, and interest rates, as demonstrated in
the above example. It can also specify a relationship between
volatility and past returns whereby negative stock returns are associated with increases
in volatility and positive stock returns are associated with decreases in volatility.
Further, it can incorporate assumptions about how the likelihood of early exercise of an
employee stock option may increase as the intrinsic value of that option increases or how
employees may have a high propensity to exercise options with significant intrinsic value
shortly after vesting. In addition, it can incorporate market conditions that may be part
of an options design such as a requirement that an option is only exercisable if the
underlying stock price achieves a certain level (target market price awards
under FAS 123 R). Because of the versatility of lattice models,
the FASB believes that they can provide a more accurate estimate of an employee stock
options fair value than a value based on a closed-form, Black-Scholes formula.
It is anticipated that more entities will switch to use Binomial model as more options
will be granted based on performance/market conditions when they are required to expense
options.
The Black-Scholes Option Pricing
Model
As indicated above, while the Black-Scholes
model is complex, the application of the formula in practice is relatively easy and
thus it has been widely used by financial professionals in the world. The formula has been
programmed into Option123 which make the calculation as simple
as clicking a mouse. However, a number of assumptions underlying Black-Scholes model are such that the
formula may be better suited to valuing short-term, exchange-traded stock options than
employee stock options. Black-Scholes
model is less effective as a valuation technique for employee stock options that have
long term to expiration and subject to vesting provisions, term truncation, or blackout
periods (a specified period around the release of earnings information during which no
options may be exercised and sold). These requirements would significantly reduce the
likelihood of option exercise during a blackout period. Blackout periods are not readily
incorporated into a valuation using the Black-Scholes
model but, as discussed below, can be incorporated into a lattice valuation.
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